[name_m]Hi[/name_m]. I am hoping someone can give me some feedback on popularity of names in general. For example, if a name ranked #200 on the popularity list in a given year, how many babies were given that name? [name_m]How[/name_m] many kids would wear that name 5 years later in the same kindergarten class? Also, if you wanted an uncommon (or at least, unpopular) name, would you consider using a name that ranks around #400 this year if it were around #900 just five years ago? Could we expect said name to continue to jump quickly up the ranks or fall flat? Are there any real ways to figure this whole popularity list out? Thanks.
I can’t help with the math side of this, but I think that I have a sense for what names are trending up and what names are trending down. For me, I consider things like theme, does the name fit into a major trend group like quirky almost-classic vintage, nature names, surname style names? Is the name similar to a very popular name? Is the name the name of any major character in an upcoming TV show or movie or book series?
If I wanted uncommon or unpopular I would look outside of the top 400, especially if the name had risen substantially like you’re saying. You could also look into how popular the name is within your state.
Hey there, I’m no expert but I will say that the best website for estimating real-world popularity is the Social Security website. It actually shows the # of babies that received a certain name, along with the ranking. state by state and year by year. For example, it says that in 2012, in [name_f]Alabama[/name_f], 317 baby girls were named [name_f]Emma[/name_f]. This was up from 282 Emmas the year before. You can also get good popularity data on Behindthename.com and babycenter.com. For example: Emma - Girl's name meaning, origin, and popularity | BabyCenter shows that in 2012, statistics indicate that for every one million babies born, about 14,000 could be expected to have the name [name_f]Emma[/name_f]. These sites can also help you track the popularity changes in the name over the years so you can guess at whether it is generally on the upswing or the downturn. Of course there is no way to 100% predict whether or not the name you give baby today will suddenly become hugely popular or hugely unpopular but you can get a general idea from these websites as to the “trend” of that name.
Let’s take the [name_f]Alabama[/name_f] example: there are about 60,000 babies born in that state every year. So we can estimate about 30,000 girls. If only 317 are named [name_f]Emma[/name_f], it doesn’t seem like that many! [name_u]Baby[/name_u] name rankings can give you the idea that there are many more babies of a certain name than there really are - people choose from a MUCH wider selection of names than they used to. That said, the most popular names usually climb for awhile and remain popular for awhile, so over the years, the percentage of living persons with that name in that population will rise. Thus, if around 300 Emmas are born every year for five years, then you’ve got about 1500 Emmas in elementary school between grades 1 & 5. It’s still nothing like the way we tend to perceive it (to me it seems closer to 10% than 1%!) but the popular names do pervade the public awareness. To me, that public perception of “common” vs. “uncommon” is more important than statistical popularity.
We used to think as long as it wasn’t in the top 100 it would give us enough creativity, but it can move up the chart so quickly I’m looking to stay closer to the 400s so my child does not hear their name often/ever. 
Thanks for the feedback. Unfortunately, looking at state trends doesn’t help us much as my husband is in the military, and we change locations often. I am thinking below 400 might suit my needs as long as the name is not rising. The names I am interested in, by the way, are [name_f]Hattie[/name_f] and [name_f]Elsie[/name_f] for a girl (both rising fast although lower in popularity for now) and [name_m]Troy[/name_m] for a boy (around 250 but appears to be dropping).